Understanding Your Local Problem

The information provided above is only a generalized description of shoplifting. You must combine the basic facts with a more specific understanding of your local problem if you are to develop an effective response. In most cases, your problem is likely to involve a group of stores, such as those in a town center, mall or shopping precinct. If it involves a single store (unless the store is very large), it is more appropriate to offer routine crime prevention advice than to undertake a full-scale problem-oriented policing project. Accordingly, your analysis is likely to focus on differential risks of shoplifting among the stores in your group, and the reasons for those differences. In any case, the measures appropriate to deal with the problem will vary with the nature of the stores at risk.

Knowing who is committing the offenses, and why, will help you decide how difficult they will be to stop. You will also need to understand how the offenses are committed. This will require a careful study of shop security practices. Comparisons between shops can greatly assist in understanding the conditions that facilitate theft.

Analysis of shoplifting is made difficult by low rates of reporting, and by the fact that police records rarely permit shoplifting offenses to be readily identified among reported thefts. There are other ways to gather information about your local problem, but these, too, have their difficulties:

• Store apprehensions may provide some useful information, but the data tend to say more about surveillance and apprehension practices than about the "typical" offender, or even the most targeted goods.
• Observational studies—in which randomly selected shoppers are followed around the store—can produce some useful results, but they are labor-intensive and ethically problematic. If followed by police or security, those observed stealing would have to be apprehended; if followed by researchers, the police or the store might be criticized for permitting this approach.14
• Identifying "hot" items among paying customers may also reveal those likely to be targeted by thieves. However, such items may already be well protected by the store's security, and theft might be concentrated on less popular but still desirable goods.
• The most accurate way to assess retail theft is repeated systematic counting of items on display, but this, again, is labor-intensive.† It is also difficult to determine whether losses are due to theft by customers or by staff, or whether they are the result of innocent clerical error.

  † McNees et al. (1976) pioneered an effective method of conducting routine shrinkage assessments that can be used on a large scale to evaluate the success of measures designed to reduce shoplifting (Buckle et al. 1992). Small tags, colorcoded by type of item, were attached to the price tag of each high-risk item in a store. An inventory of all items was taken before opening the store for business. When items were sold, the clerks removed the tags, and they were counted at the end of the day. The store manager then added the number of tagged items sold to the number of items left on the floor. If the total did not match the initial inventory, then the residual number of items were presumed stolen. See also Farrington et al. (1993) and Farrington (1999) for a description of this process. [Full text ]

In some cases, store stock-control records or staff may be able to provide information about items particularly
vulnerable to theft. However, whenever possible, you should check such information by gathering additional data, as discussed above. The effort required to obtain accurate information about problems is almost always justified by the improved responses that result.

Asking the Right Questions

The following are some critical questions you should ask in analyzing your particular problem of shoplifting, even if the answers are not always readily available. Your answers to these and other questions will help you choose the most appropriate set of responses later on.

Incidents

• How many incidents are detected?
• How much is typically lost (dollar value of goods, lost profit)?
• What proportion of shrinkage does shoplifting account for? Compared with employee theft or delivery fraud?
• How do targeted stores' shrinkage rates compare with those of similar-size stores of the same type?
• Which items do shoplifters target most frequently?
• Do the goods stolen fit the CRAVED model? (See the" Factors Contributing to Shoplifting/Goods Sold" section
  above.)
• Are they sold or kept for personal use?
• If sold, how so?

Offenders

• What is known about offenders? Do they tend to belong to any particular demographic group? What proportion are juveniles?
• What proportions of offenders are casual/opportunistic, professionals or addicts? Are organized rings involved?
• Do some types of offenders use particular shoplifting methods or target particular goods?
• Are there repeat offenders?

Locations/Times

• What is the nature of the surrounding neighborhood?
• When do thefts mainly occur (time of day, day of week, month, season)? Are certain items more commonly stolen during certain seasons (e.g., batteries for toys at Christmastime)?
• Is the problem concentrated at particular stores, or does it affect a cluster of stores? If concentrated at particular stores, what do they have in common?

Conditions Facilitating Shoplifting

• How large is the store? What type of store is it? What market segment does it target?
• What are the store's hours? Is it open at night? Are nearby businesses open at night and on weekends?
• Does the store have a security department or set of policies on apprehending shoplifters?
• Does it treat shoplifting as a business cost? Or does it invest resources in prevention?
• Does it report shoplifting incidents to the police?
• How adequate is stock control?
• Where are targeted goods located in the store?
• Is lack of natural surveillance a contributory factor? Can thieves conceal goods without being seen?
• After stealing, can thieves evade store employees?
• Is there more than one escape route?
• What security hardware does the store have? Mirrors? Electronic tagging? Closed-circuit television (CCTV)
  cameras?
• What other prevention measures are in place?

Current Responses

• How do police currently handle shoplifting incidents?
• Do police train or regulate private security forces?
• How do prosecutors handle shoplifting charges?
• What sentences do courts typically hand down for convicted offenders? Do offenders comply with the sentences?

Measuring Your Effectiveness

You should take measures of your problem before you implement responses, to determine how serious the problem
is, and after you implement them, to determine whether they have been effective. Measurement allows you to determine to what degree your efforts have succeeded, and suggests how you might modify your responses if they are not producing the intended results. For more detailed guidance on measuring effectiveness, see the companion guide to this series, Assessing Responses to Problems: An Introductory Guide for Police Problem-Solvers.

Potential indicators of an effective response to shoplifting include:

• fewer repeat offenders,
• decreased shrinkage,
• increased sales, and
• increased profits.

If you suspect that shoplifting is currently underreported to police, increased reporting might be a positive indicator of your efforts, at least temporarily. If you suspect too few shoplifters are getting caught, a temporary increase in apprehensions might also be a positive indicator. Ultimately, though, the number of reported thefts and apprehensions should decline as the number of actual shoplifting incidents declines.